What To Do With the Insurance Bet in Blackjack?
The benefit of the casino keeping blackjack is about 55/1. But in the insurance bet of blackjack, casinos only offer the payout of 2:1. Obviously, a blackjack player should never take on the offered insurance bet on the table.
It is only an illusion for players to see insurance bet as attractive for many valid reasons that are to be discussed here.
First and foremost, insurance bets usually apply to only half of your initial bet in blackjack. Therefore, the insurance bet will just left you with similar amount as your initial bet was. When the dealer has a blackjack and you don't, then betting on the insurance bet will let you lose your initial bet. But if we analyze it really well, if both the player and the dealer have similar hand value, the game became a standoff wherein the player don't have the need to take the insurance bet of blackjack.
Out of the 1,000 hands in blackjack, insurance bets will likely lose 982 times in the long run of the game. For the question to bet or not to bet on insurance bet, it will be best for the blackjack players to divert their chips on the other bets available within the basic blackjack strategy.
The possibility of blackjacks appearing will increase after a long period that neither blackjacks or Aces have been dealt. The best feasible circumstance to make insurance bets is during the time when there are less than 71 cards inside the shoe with 312 cards and still no Ace has been dealt at that time.
But even in this very rare circumstance of a blackjack game, the highest expected long-term earnings from making insurance bets alone will only be 1.04%. In reality, casinos don't have that much profit margin in blackjack games and that is why they are offering players the insurance bets to increase their house edge.
The odds that two players are holding blackjack at the same time of the game are more than 1,666/1. There are several casinos that tolerate the blackjack players to plainly increase their initial bets instead of taking the insurance bet.
Insurance bets may look really enticing to you because of the 2:1 payout it has compared to the even money payout of other winning hands or 3:2 payout for blackjacks. But please do understand that insurance bets in blackjack are among the worst bets you can make in the casino.
In reality, you will lose less if you play according to the basic blackjack strategy and increase your initial bets if you feel very confident that you can beat the house with your current hand rather than place your chips on the insurance bets. Be a sensible player and avoid the insurance bet in blackjack.